Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
